The Non-Farm Payroll numbers came in on the 8th of this month, well above expectations with 204K versus an estimate of 125K new jobs. In addition, revisions added 60,000 more jobs to the prior two month
releases and thus mortgage rates took a significant one-day beating – noted by the long red column shown on the far right of this graph. Prices are now almost back where they were before that report was announced.
For those of you shopping for a good mortgage rate, who did not lock at the time, may have just gotten your reprieve!
When the U.S. economy hit rock bottom a few years ago we called it the Great Recession, and saw the mortgage banking industry come to a screeching halt. A thankful by-product, after the dust settled – we were treated to some of the lowest interest rates in our lifetime. Those historically low rates may have run their course as the past week brought encouraging economic news from several sources, and with that, rates are rising.
For my clients of late, I have been in a “locking” mood, and based on the technical’s – I am not changing my mind anytime soon. As you can see from the graph on your right, Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) have traded below a ceiling of resistance going on 10 days now. The economic news this week shouldn’t have enough push, to get above that ceiling. Continue reading →
Ben Bernanke, Fed Chairman, blew up the bond and mortgage markets a month ago with his comments that the Fed is preparing to begin reducing the monthly purchases of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Rates spiked, and left folks shopping for mortgages, shaking their heads. The minutes for June’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) suggest that committee members are mostly in agreement that the current quantitative easing program (QE) should begin winding down by year-end, but the committee minutes are very clear about the committee’s intention to monitor inflation and ongoing economic and financial developments before taking action to reduce the current rate of QE. Continue reading →
Have you ever been on a roller coaster? Not the little one that comes to your state fair every year, but the big one that you spend days preparing yourself for that inevitable ride of your life. Well, comments by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke after last week’s FOMC meeting caused quite the upheaval in financial markets, and put investors on the proverbial roller coaster, as they anticipated the potential effects of any rollback of the Fed’s policy of quantitative easing (QE). Chairman Bernanke said that the Fed may begin reducing its $85 billion monthly purchase of Treasury securities and MBS toward the end of this year. Continue reading →
The unrelenting selling in the MBS markets has gotten a bit out of hand, and has a panicked feel. This may have something to do with the Fed, who suggests that the present quantitative easing (QE) program may be modified in the near future. This is not a surprise as Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said, at some point the Fed would begin exiting, likely inch by inch but obviously not in one fell swoop as the market decline over past few weeks seems to imply (see chart).
The current QE program involves the Fed purchasing $85 billion per month in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and Treasury bonds. The Fed’s goal with QE is keeping long-term interest rates, including mortgage rates, low. Continue reading →