I know shopping for a home today is hard work and very frustrating at times. Inventory is low, and demand is high – It may take many offers, and a few tension-filled bidding sessions, before you land that home. Buyers can quickly get discouraged and say, “I am tired of this. I am just going sign a new rental lease instead and try this again in 6 months to a year”.
Here’s the thing: you can take some time off, but the market isn’t taking time off, even with COVID. For example, in Sacramento County, the forecasted appreciation is 4.22% in just the next six months; let’s quantify that. A home worth $442,000 today would be worth $18,637 more in 6 months. Being careful with this prediction, even if we cut this estimate of appreciation in half to 2.4%, waiting would require you to get a bigger loan, and pay more every month, or put more money down.
I think the effects of COVID will continue to ripple through our economy in ways we can’t even imagine. If home prices do dip temporarily, the economic value to a person of owning their own home, and taking advantage of today’s super-low 30-year fixed rates, will put them in a much healthier long term financial position than choosing to rent for the next several years. The key is for people to buy homes that they enjoy living in, with a long term outlook. A short term paper loss is nothing compared to the long term economic benefits a homeowner would receive.
And what about interest rates? Should you wait until rates go down further? No, the monthly savings with a lower rate are nice but small compared to the missed appreciation and amortization. It could take longer for the incremental savings of a lower rate in the future to make up for the money lost by waiting. Should rates drop significantly, you can always refinance in the future. Stick with it, keep shopping, and you will find something!
And remember, there’s no guarantee that rates head even lower. It’s essential to weigh the individual options for you, and I’m here to help you do that.