With Inflation Rising, Is This The Right Time To Buy a Home?

Inflation has been the word du jour of late, and we all feel it. My ah-ha moment was when I filled up my tank a few weeks ago at my favorite gas station, and gas was $6 a gallon! We are not alone in this pain, as folks are feeling this worldwide. According to an energy data tracking company, gas prices in the U.S. ranked 70th among the 170 counties tracked. For our friends in Germany, gas is pushing $9, while in Hong Kong, it’s over $11!

Having been a mortgage professional in Sacramento for two decades, I get asked a lot, “Is this the right time to buy?” and second most popular question, “What’s your rate?”. These are excellent questions, as I, too, seem to always focus on the financial benefits of homeownership. Thankfully, my new homebuyers remind me daily that owning a home is not a purely financial investment but a life-changing event. It provides stability for your family in a neighborhood you love and creates lasting memories as you turn that house into your home.

I am strongly inclined that you are reading this blog because you have been considering buying a new home. And I suspect the current economy might be putting a damper on those dreams. Are you basing this mood on emotion and fear? Have you considered the actual benefits of owning your piece of the pie? With home prices way up and inflation increasing the cost of life’s basic expenses, is now the right time to dive into your first mortgage? And if you wait, could you be priced out of the market altogether? You might not be entirely surprised by my answer. If you are ready for a long-term commitment and can comfortably afford the monthly mortgage payment and ongoing homeownership costs, then YES, YES, YES. It may be your perfect time to buy.

Let me hit you with some financial data regarding inflation and buying versus renting. According to a Stanford University study (January 2020), residential real estate has historically been an “investment safe-haven” during inflationary periods. In addition, during another moment of surging inflation (the 1970s), home prices rose relative to the size of the economy. Great news for homeowners since it meant their home’s increasing value helped offset rising costs elsewhere.

For my renters who have been stalking the market but are now not sure they want to buy, I always ask, “Is your rent going down?” According to CNN Business, rents in Sacramento jumped 19.5% from 2020 to 2021. For those wanting to make the leap to owning a home, “rising rents will remain a motivating factor even as for-sale home prices and mortgage rates continue to climb,” said Danielle Hale, Realtor.com’s chief economist. 

With home prices seeing such a jump over the previous few years, I have to drive the point with my new buyers that few of us are lucky enough to find our dream home the first time. So, think about compromising to find that sweet, happy medium instead of trying to get everything you want. The power of homeownership starts with your first purchase, and buyers have to start somewhere so they can eventually get to where they want to go. So, reach out to your favorite realtor to find that balance between home size, neighborhood, price, and all the bells and whistles.

Is Buying a Home a Hedge Against Inflation?

Homeownership, for many, is the ultimate American dream. Of course, people may not want to own a home for many reasons, but there’s no denying that being a homeowner can hugely impact your net worth. According to a CNBC.com article (Sept 2020), in 2019, homeowners in the U.S. had a median net worth of $255,000, while renters had a net worth of just $6,300. Let that soak in for a minute. 

However, don’t think this answers all your financial needs. Buying a home is a big deal and not something to take lightly. Take your time to review the financials with your realtor, your mortgage person, and possibly a financial planner. Owning a home is a big responsibility to pay for and maintain. If you don’t feel you can stay rooted in that home for at least a few years, then renting might be the best route. 

The above information is for educational purposes only. All data, loan programs, and interest rates are subject to change without notice. All loans are subject to underwriter approval. Terms and conditions apply. Always consult an accountant or tax advisor for complete eligibility requirements on tax deduction.

Are Higher Mortgage Rates a Good Thing?

Have you dipped your toes into lava lately? I joke about this with my clients who are currently shopping for a new home, especially if they started their search within the last few months – The day before Christmas, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.05%. Then, a few weeks ago (Easter), that rate spiked to 5%. And now rates are creeping even higher. So much for taking that family vacation this year! This jump in mortgage rates is forcing many buyers to take a more critical look at their current budget and, in some cases, lower their expectations of what they can genuinely afford or get out of the buying process altogether.

Are higher mortgage rates a good thing? 

Mortgage rates are the highest they’ve been in 13 years, and home affordability is the lowest in 15 years. Is that a good thing? The lead analyst at HousingWire, one of Real Estates leading resources, says yes, it’s a good thing. He says spiking mortgage rates could take some steam out of the red hot market and give inventory a chance to rise. If that happens, it could slow down the rate of home price appreciation and reduce the possibility of an overheated housing market ending in a big crash or bust. He agrees that higher mortgage rates are the best thing because we are in a “savagely unhealthy housing market” and need to get off these shallow inventory levels. Too many people are chasing too few homes, and we desperately need a breather. Redfin said that more sellers are cutting home prices as housing demand softens, partly because of this sharp increase in mortgage rates. And it could be a few months before the actual effect of higher mortgage rates is genuinely noticeable. 

Will Home Values Go Down in 2022?

Should you wait to buy that new home until prices drop? Again, the experts say no, and I agree based on the metrics. One school of thought is that home prices have been artificially inflated the previous few years due to historically low rates and the pandemic. But not one single major real estate firm thinks prices will drop this year. Thankfully, we are starting to see a slowdown compared to last year’s unsustainable run. In 2021, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index, home prices skyrocketed to nearly 19%. To put this in perspective, the average appreciation rate in Sacramento over the prior 25 years (not including 2020 and 2021) was just over 8% per year. And this includes the Great Recession 2007 – 2009.

HERE IS A WONDERFUL TOOL provided by The Federal Housing Finance Agency to track appreciation in the US from 1991 to the present.

Rising prices have primarily been due to supply-demand imbalance, and I don’t see this going away anytime soon. Even with rates on the rise, we should see some fall off, but not significantly. According to The National Association of Realtors, the inventory of unsold homes was only 950,000 as of the end of March. According to NerdWallet Home Buyer Report, published this January, nearly 26 million Americans plan to purchase a home in the next 12 months. Given that between 5 and 6 million homes sold in each of the past five years, this doesn’t bold well for buyers. Again, we have too many buyers chasing too few properties.

These higher mortgage rates should take some much-needed steam out of the market, and experts agree that high demand and low inventory are here for the foreseeable future. Hopefully, this clarifies if you are like so many buyers trying to decide if they should buy now or wait. But, of course, whether you purchase a home in 2022 is a very personal decision and depends on your financial situation and the market where you live.

The above information is for educational purposes only. Guild Mortgage Company offers home financing only. All loans are subject to underwriter approval. Terms, conditions, and eligibility requirements apply.

Should I Lock or Float? FED Minutes Reveal Rates Should Climb Before Years End

Federal Reserve to Meet this weekFOMC Minutes Suggest QE Tapering by Year-End

Ben Bernanke, Fed Chairman, blew up the bond and mortgage markets a month ago with his comments that the Fed is preparing to begin reducing the monthly purchases of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Rates spiked, and left folks shopping for mortgages, shaking their heads. The minutes for June’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) suggest that committee members are mostly in agreement that the current quantitative easing program (QE) should begin winding down by year-end, but the committee minutes are very clear about the committee’s intention to monitor inflation and ongoing economic and financial developments before taking action to reduce the current rate of QE. Continue reading

Should I Lock Or Float This Week : May 13, 2013

Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week May 13 2013Over the past 7 trading days, Mortgage rates were wounded with 2 of the largest one-day spikes in over 2 years. Rates rose last week with average rates a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rising from last week’s 3.35 percent to 3.42 percent with buyers paying all closing costs and 0.7 percent in discount points.

We are in a definite “locking” bias at the moment. As I am publishing this blog, rates are still trending worse this Monday morning. Continue reading

Why The Sudden Change in Rates? Ask The Fed

Federal Open Market Committee Minutes Released 4-10-2013The minutes for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held March 19 and 20 were released on Wednesday April 10, 2013. These periodic meetings by the FOMC cover a wide-ranging group of topics that impact the overall economy in the United States.

The decisions made and acted upon from the FOMC meetings often sway the real estate and residential financing markets. Some highlights of the recent FOMC minutes for the March meeting include: Continue reading